Gujarat state elections are on the cards and that is the reason why our PM Narendra Modi has visited Gujarat more often in recent past. The Gujarat Assembly elections are scheduled in two phases on 9th and 14th of December. Modi Has already announced a lot of reform plans and as the build up to election continues, you will certainly see many more of such announcements coming up.
If you take into perspective about Gujarat in the 2014 Parliamentary election, BJP enjoyed a vote share of 59% while Congress enjoyed a 33% vote share. So the real difference between both the parties was of 26%. If you consider 2017 Gujarat assembly election to be a bi polar contest then Congress will have to raise its vote share by at least 13% to have a chance of forming the government in state.
If we look at the events that have happened in Gujarat since the parliamentary elections, you can see a lot of swing in votes. Let’s discuss the events and their assumed impact:
- Pate Agitation: The leader of this agitation Hardik Patel garnered a lot of limelight for his act. Initially he was attracting crowds and his slogan “Jai Sardar, Jai Patidar” became a talking point. However, in last year or so, he is not looked upon as a dominant force and though 18% vote bank belongs to Patidars, it can hardly swing 2-3% votes.
- Shankar Singh Vaghela: He was one of the biggest leaders that congress had and after his exit from congress, the party find themselves in a spot of bother. His departure from congress party is surely going to benefit BJP and a vote swing of at least 3-5% will go in favor of BJP.
- GST & Demonetization: Though Demonetization is a story gone by but GST is sure to play a major role in this year’s election. The sale volumes have dropped significantly this festive season and traditional voters of BJP who are traders are really unhappy with BJP for that. The mass protest that happened in Surat is an example of that. Therefore a vote swing of 2-4% is possible because of that.
- Anti Incumbency: BJP is in power in the state since 22 years and some of the people including farmers are distressed and hence a 2-3% of vote share can go against BJP in this scenario.
As of now it seems like congress will gain some vote share but how many of them gets converted into seats will be exciting to watch. Though it seems high unlikely that Gujarat voters will disappoint Modi.
Article by Navneet.